A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an highly divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in universities but very few elected officials or advocates are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. Both writes two articles that aim for impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a feckless official who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has got something to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
