Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: positive announcements are released from different nations. Immense energy is devoted on managing specific proposals. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from across the border, a ability afforded by current data. From observation points, defense planes that had been deployed to engage hostile cruise missiles flew past – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: multiple launches targeted at a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably delivered by allied countries. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly gives way to sober acceptance: maybe the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a drone close by, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its target.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: multiple fatalities, damage and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a need that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to substitute in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from American leadership provoked deep reactions, discussion and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new proposal from Washington adheres to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This trend will, undoubtedly, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration operates on a principle well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government presumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the land that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the status quo will not change more in its advantage in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding people and territory but avoiding a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its favour.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not switch to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new proposals based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, largely rely on continued Western support.
